If at first you don’t succeed (first you don’t succeed),
Dust yourself off, and try again
– Aaliyah
The paper below is the worst one I wrote in the first semester of my PhD program. The professor (who I have a ton of respect for) ripped me to shreds with criticism about how I write more like a social critic than a social scientist. As such, I figured I’d publish it here. It should be noted that I wrote this paper a month before the Coates-West beef kicked off. It was weird to see the agency argument I make pop up in West’s essay but it makes me feel like maybe my paper wasn’t all bad…
In the months since the 2016 United States presidential election, pundits, journalists, academics, and even laymen have devoted countless pages in attempts at explaining the outcome. How did Donald John Trump get elected? Who voted for Donald Trump? What does the election say about Americans and, more specifically, the American electorate? One compelling and masterfully written essay on Trump’s election is Ta-Nehisi Coates’ “Donald Trump is the First White President”. Coates posits that white supremacy was the driving force behind the election. Admittedly, there are many factors to consider in answering questions surrounding the Trump election and the reality is that the outcome is most definitely the result of a confluence of conditions and variables than it is the result of one factor. For example, there are important questions around gender and political patriarchy in the first race with a female front runner that many analysts have either missed or totally ignored in their analyses of the 2016 election. Insights on the gender question may help us to better understand the “how” and “why” behind Trump’s election to the White House but are beyond the scope of this particular paper.
Through a critical reading of Coates’ essay, this paper will show that while available data confirms that white voters elected Trump, it’s not clear that it was white supremacy alone that drove this outcome. Moreover, the black vote in this election, which has received little attention, may have played a larger role than most people acknowledge. White supremacy and working class backlash complemented each other but did not singularly influence the presidential election that put Donald Trump in the White House. More clearly, the large white voter turnout and the depressed black turnout led to Trump’s election.
One of the largest myths about the 2016 presidential election is that it was determined by the white working class vote. Sociologists and political scientists, like Arlie Russell Hochschild and Katherine Cramer respectively, argue that low income working class and rural whites had developed a resentment for the democratic party and its expensive welfare policies (which many of them ironically benefitted from). This resentment in turn, led them to abandon the democratic ticket and vote for Trump despite some grievances with his persona and history. In response to the claims of working class backlash, Jeff Manza and Ned Crowley set out to test their validity against available data on GOP primary races and exit poll data. Their analysis shows that Trump’s white support came from across educational backgrounds and socioeconomic classes (Manza, 2017). It wasn’t just working class or rural whites who voted for Trump, is was white people in general.
Part of Coates’ claims around the white vote echoes the myth of the white working and rural classes. Coates cites figures from Gallup researchers Jonathan Rothwell and Pablo Diego-Rosell showing that whites who approved of Trump “tended to be from areas that were very white: ‘the racial and ethnic isolation of whites at the zip code level is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support.” (p7) In other words, whites who lived in geographically segregated areas showed stronger support for Trump and his pro white (and relationally anti-immigrant and anti-black) rhetoric. Conversely, in their 1971 article “The Ecology of Dissent: The Southern Wallace Vote in 1968”, Shoenberger and Segal uncover the ecological fallacy associated with the southern vote for George Wallace, a pro Jim Crow Southern dixiecrat in areas with large black populations. Their research showed that greater concentrations of blacks in a southern congressional district was associated with a greater propensity of whites (who outnumbered blacks in these districts) to vote for Wallace. This presents a paradox of anti black sentiment in light of segregation and anti black sentiment in light of proximity. The solution to this paradox may be quite simple: white supremacy. It may very well be that white folks who live close to black people and those who live away from black people cast votes for candidates who speak to antiblack, anti-immigrant, or simply pro white sentiments.
Coates argues that while the specter of whiteness and, more specifically, white supremacy has haunted US elections for our country’s entire history, Trump moved it from a “passive” power of whiteness to an “explicit” one. (Coates, 2016, p2) There has been extensive research in recent decades showing how the ideology of white supremacy is exercised in American public institutions and social life. In their 1997 article “Racial Attitudes and the ‘New South”, Kuklinski, Cobb, and Gilens use innovative survey techniques to uncover the persistence of racial inequality in the American south. It is telling that while their research is 20 years old, Trump won every southern state with the exception of Virginia. The logical rebuttal to this line of reasoning is the 2012 election where Obama, a black man, won two southern states (Florida and Virginia). It should be noted that Obama, while being black, is a man and ran a race against another man. The issue of gender and the black vote may have affected this outcome in ways that are difficult to compare to the 2016 election.
Even if white supremacy did not preclude Obama’s election to the White House, it continued to exert its influence in other areas of American life. Nicole Gonzalez Van Cleve used an ethnographic observation approach to show how the country’s largest criminal court exercises what she terms racial justice veiled in colorblind racism (Van, 2016). Devah Pager’s work uses an experimental method to show that blacks are less likely than whites to receive callbacks for employment even when white applicants have a criminal record and black applicants do not (Pager, 2003). Howard Schuman and Lawrence Bobo used a survey method to study attitudes of whites towards open housing and residential segregation. They found that whites have a personal prejudice against blacks moving in as their neighbors which is exacerbated if class differences are taken into consideration. (Schuman and Bobo, 1988) While these authors show the persistence of white supremacy and antiblackness in general attitudes, housing, criminal justice, and hiring, they do not account for or show an uptick in racism leading up to the 2016 presidential election. This brings to bear the question of whether white supremacy is a constant or a variable.
If white supremacy has persisted from this country’s inception to our present day, then it must be taken as a constant and not as a variable. An important distinction that Coates misses in his article is that between the American population in general and the American electorate. In statistical terms, this is the difference between a population and a sample. In this case, the American electorate is a biased sample of people who self select to participate or to abstain in electoral politics. As such, generalizations about the results of the election should be made about the electorate and not necessarily the entire population. This is particularly true given that the turnout and rates of participation have fluctuated among subgroups across all, and especially the last three, presidential elections. According to the University of California, Santa Barbara American Presidency Project, the 2016 presidential election had approximately 136.6 million votes cast compared to 129 million in 2012, 131.3 million in 2008 and 122.2 million in 2004. While some of the differences may be attributed to changes in our total population, the percentage of eligible voters who actually voted also changed across these elections.
Voting is an exercise of civic engagement and agency. A glaring omission in Coates’ essay is a discussion on black agency. In order to understand the election outcome, we must consider the behavior and attitudes of white people and black people. Coates’ essay harps on the first and fails to mention the latter. This problem of black agency erasure is one that dates back centuries and that W.E.B. DuBois specifically sets out to address in his text “Black Reconstruction in America.” (1995) For the eligible voting population, voting or not voting is a behavior that some might argue is an exercise of agency. (DuBois, 1995) According to Census Bureau estimates, in 2016, 59.4% of eligible black voters actually voted compared to 66.2% in 2012 and 64.7% in 2008. Correspondingly, 62.9% of eligible white voters actually voted in 2016 compared to 62.2% in 2012 and 64.4% in 2008. Compared to the last couple of elections, in the 2016 election, white people showed up on election day and black people stayed home. A recent development whose effects will require time to study is the 2013 Supreme Court Ruling on two provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. This was the first presidential election since the ruling and while there was a depressed turnout for black voters, it’s unclear if it was caused by the decision.
The voting turnout figures help us reconcile the paradox of white supremacy as a constant. In 2016, less black people (in absolute terms and as a percentage) voted in the election compared to 2012 and more white people (some of which may very well ascribe to white supremacist ideals) voted compared to 2012 (in absolute terms and as a percentage). In the same article mentioned earlier, Manza and Crowley argue that “it is more impactful… to receive 50% of the votes of whites than 90% of African Americans, as there are far more whites in the electorate as a whole.” (2017, p.11) More than 50% of white people voted in the 2016 election and 58% of those white people voted for Trump. The available data also tell us that the eligible black population that voted in 2016 is almost 6% less than the eligible population in 2012. Did the black electorate feel dejected from American electoral politics? Did these candidates speak less to their concerns? These questions are beyond the scope of this paper but speak to the ways in which black voice and agency are ignored even by critical journalists and academics.
Coates’ invocation of white supremacy is provocative and compelling. From rhetorical and anecdotal perspectives, it’s easy to agree with. From a sociological perspective, it’s hard to prove. Because he’s a journalist and cultural commentator, he’s not beholden to the same statistical standards or burden of proof as academics. Rather than showing that white supremacy caused Donald Trump to get elected, we may content ourselves in being able to show how he got elected. White voters clearly favored Trump. Less black people voted in 2016 than in each of the two prior presidential elections. These factors, and likely a score of others, contributed to the outcome of the election. While the white supremacy hypothesis is powerful, academic research has shown that it’s an ideology, attitude, and behavior that has been constant throughout recent history and even existed during the election and tenure of a black president. (Gonzalez Van Cleve; Schuman and Bobo; Kuklinski, Cobb, and Gilens; Pager). Further research should pay more attention to the engagement of black voters and especially to the impact of the recent Supreme Court ruling dismantling two provisions the Voting Rights Act.
References
Coates, T. (2017, October). The First White President . The Atlantic .
Manza, J., & Crowley, N. (n.d). Working Class Hero? Interrogating the Social Bases of the Rise of Donald Trump. Forum-A Journal Of Applied Research In Contemporary Politics, 15(1), 3-28.
Du Bois, W. E. B, & Lewis, D. L. (1995). Black reconstruction in America. 1st Touchstone ed. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Howard Schuman, a., & Lawrence Bobo, a. (1988). Survey-Based Experiments on White Racial Attitudes Toward Residential Integration. American Journal Of Sociology, (2), 273.
Pager, D. (2003). The Mark of a Criminal Record. American Journal Of Sociology, 108(5), 937-975.
Robert A. Schoenberger, a., & David R. Segal, a. (1971). The Ecology of Dissent: The Southern Wallace Vote in 1968. Midwest Journal Of Political Science, (3), 583. doi:10.2307/2110112
U.S. Census Bureau (2017). Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2016. Retrieved from [https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html].
Van, C. N. G. (2016). Crook County: Racism and injustice in America’s largest criminal court.
Woolley, J. T. (2017) The American Presidency Project. Santa Barbara, Calif.: University of California. [Web.] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, https://lccn.loc.gov/2005616760.